Post by account_disabled on Dec 28, 2023 12:16:24 GMT 2
Financial Market Group Siam Commercial Bank (SCB Financial Markets: SCB FM) revealed that major central banks are likely to continue cutting interest rates next year. The Fed is likely to cut policy rates 4-5 times, and the first rate cuts will come as early as this quarter. 2. While the ECB and BOE are likely to reduce interest rates 4 times, the MPC is likely to maintain interest rates throughout the year. Makes the yield on US government bonds There is a trend of decreasing, where short-term returns tend to decrease more, making the Yield curve more steep (Steepen). But for Thailand, long-term returns tend to decrease more, making the Yield curve likely to be less steep (Flatten). For the angle Looking at the value of the baht, SCB FM estimates that it will likely continue to strengthen to around 32-33 at the end of next year. In addition to the Thai economy recovering The baht will still benefit from the price of gold which tends to increase. and the regional currencies, both the yen and the yuan, are likely to strengthen as well. Mr. Patrick Pulia,
Assistant General Manager Financial Markets Executive Siam Commercial Bank Public Company Limited revealed that the outlook for the financial market next year will still be very challenging. The main central banks will gradually reduce policy interest rates, causing global financial markets to become more volatile. Mr. Patrick estimates that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to cut policy interest rates 4-5 times next year. And the first interest rate cut will come as early as the second quarter. In addition, the US economy is slowing down and the labor market is weak. Moreover, oil prices are likely to remain low in the future. It is seen that the yield on US government bonds (Treasury yields) is likely to continue Telegram Number Data to decline next year. The 2-year Treasury yields are likely to be at 3.50-3.70% at the end of 2024, while the 10-year Treasury yields are likely to be at 3.70. -3.90% In the short term, there is a chance that Yields may increase somewhat. Because the market considers that the Fed's interest rate cut at around 6 times is too much and too fast, we may see a correction of around 20-30 bps. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) are likely to cut interest rates 4 times in 2024. However, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to raise interest rates so that they are not negative.
(currently -0.10%) at the end of the first quarter of 2024. Therefore, next year could see further strengthening of the euro and yen against the US dollar. For the trend of Thai government bond yields Mr. Patrick sees that the 10-year yield is likely to decrease slightly to around 2.60-2.70% at the end of 2024, decreasing in line with US Treasury yields. In addition, it is expected that the yield curve of Thai government bonds will trend. The slope is less steep (Flatten) because it is viewed that short-term yields will be stable following the maintenance of interest rates by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) because the current interest rates are at an appropriate level for the expansion of the Thai economy. Although market players see a 60% chance that the MPC will start cutting interest rates in the second quarter of 2024. As for the direction of the baht this year, it has depreciated approximately 1% compared to the beginning of the year. This is a result of the Fed's continuous increase in interest rates. This causes the US dollar index to strengthen quickly, as well as foreign wars and political uncertainty and government measures in Thailand. This resulted in capital flowing out of the Thai money market. However, in the 4th quarter, it was found that the baht strengthened quite quickly, approximately 5% from the 3rd quarter, as the market began to return to the view that the Fed would reduce interest rates quickly next year. In addition, the baht also Received support from higher gold prices. and regional currencies that have begun to strengthen.
Assistant General Manager Financial Markets Executive Siam Commercial Bank Public Company Limited revealed that the outlook for the financial market next year will still be very challenging. The main central banks will gradually reduce policy interest rates, causing global financial markets to become more volatile. Mr. Patrick estimates that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to cut policy interest rates 4-5 times next year. And the first interest rate cut will come as early as the second quarter. In addition, the US economy is slowing down and the labor market is weak. Moreover, oil prices are likely to remain low in the future. It is seen that the yield on US government bonds (Treasury yields) is likely to continue Telegram Number Data to decline next year. The 2-year Treasury yields are likely to be at 3.50-3.70% at the end of 2024, while the 10-year Treasury yields are likely to be at 3.70. -3.90% In the short term, there is a chance that Yields may increase somewhat. Because the market considers that the Fed's interest rate cut at around 6 times is too much and too fast, we may see a correction of around 20-30 bps. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) are likely to cut interest rates 4 times in 2024. However, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to raise interest rates so that they are not negative.
(currently -0.10%) at the end of the first quarter of 2024. Therefore, next year could see further strengthening of the euro and yen against the US dollar. For the trend of Thai government bond yields Mr. Patrick sees that the 10-year yield is likely to decrease slightly to around 2.60-2.70% at the end of 2024, decreasing in line with US Treasury yields. In addition, it is expected that the yield curve of Thai government bonds will trend. The slope is less steep (Flatten) because it is viewed that short-term yields will be stable following the maintenance of interest rates by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) because the current interest rates are at an appropriate level for the expansion of the Thai economy. Although market players see a 60% chance that the MPC will start cutting interest rates in the second quarter of 2024. As for the direction of the baht this year, it has depreciated approximately 1% compared to the beginning of the year. This is a result of the Fed's continuous increase in interest rates. This causes the US dollar index to strengthen quickly, as well as foreign wars and political uncertainty and government measures in Thailand. This resulted in capital flowing out of the Thai money market. However, in the 4th quarter, it was found that the baht strengthened quite quickly, approximately 5% from the 3rd quarter, as the market began to return to the view that the Fed would reduce interest rates quickly next year. In addition, the baht also Received support from higher gold prices. and regional currencies that have begun to strengthen.